LEDs vs CFLs: bad answer to a bad question
The first point is that the LED "bulb" is an abheration. Bulbs have been around in their present form factor because they break, burn or, in any other way, have to be replaced. Todays power LED have a rated lifetime 6 to 7 times that of the best CFLs, which when translated in understandable numbers amounts to a minimum of 8 to 10 years of normal usage in a household. So if something now is to break and be replaced in your instalation it will be the actual lighting fixture, that was never designed to last more than 3 to 5 years...
Second point, "Because of their structure and material, much of the light in standard LEDs becomes trapped, reducing the brightness of the light and making them unsuitable as the main lighting source in the home." is a biaised staement. This cannot be applied to lighting power LEDs, which are specifically engineered to reflect the major part of the emitted light. So when you speak of lighting applications, forget about these clusters of "many small LED bulbs together in a single casing to concentrate the light emitted" and choose a lighting source designed for real lighting applications.
Third point, what you are paying for is not due to "costly semiconductor technology". True, electronic components assembly can sometimes be more expensive than the "mechanical" components in an incandescent bulb. But the production cost for a 100 lumen power LED is today well bellow the 1USD mark. Even if we consider the multichips LEDs, which produce more than 1000 lumens, the production cost remain bellow the 5USD. Now, as I said, this is more expensive than incandescent bulbs, but you should really question your reseller as to where their selling price come from... Specially if they try to sell you the above mentioned "clusters" they get from the far east at a cost similar to those of the incandescent bulbs.
The proper answer to the title question is no! LED bulbs will not dethrone the CFL. New LED based lighting fixtures will replace our current fixtures altogether, but they will be tightly integrated and will probably have a vastly different form factor that the "bulb". LED is a disruptive technology which requires a different view point. But as we all know, ability to change is not the prime quality of Man.
